Science of the Peloton

Impact of Heat at Rider-level

Leveraging betting market prices

Jun 29, 2024 • 

jn

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Modelling the Betting Market

With Beta Regression

Jun 28, 2024 • 

jn

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March 2024

Milan Sanremo 2024

Milan Sanremo was won last Saturday in a twelve man sprint by Jasper Philipsen.

Mar 22, 2024 • 

jn

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January 2024

2024 Rider Projections

Projecting PCS Points for the third year

Jan 11, 2024 • 

jn

January 2023

2023 Team Projections

Last year I produced my team-level projections for professional cycling for the first time.

Jan 12, 2023 • 

jn

Evaluating Quick Step's Dominant Transfer Performance

Top-level professional cycling teams typically turnover around 20-25% of their roster (~7-8 of ~30 riders) year-over-year.

Jan 3, 2023 • 

jn

June 2022

GC in 2022 Tour de France

There's a number of big stories on the general classification of this year's race.

Jun 29, 2022 • 

jn

Sprinters in 2022 Tour de France

One of the biggest stories leading into the 2022 Tour de France was whether Quick Step will select young sprinting star Fabio Jakobsen or 34-time Tour…

Jun 27, 2022 • 

jn

February 2022

A Better Bunch Sprint Model

I introduced a very basic model for rating riders two months ago which simply took the natural logarithm of finishing rank in each race to make the stat…

Feb 23, 2022 • 

jn

January 2022

Too Many Leaders - Analyzing Team Depth

Pro cycling teams have to juggle a lot of goals: for the season, for a stage race, for an individual race.

Jan 17, 2022 • 

jn

Projected Team Points for 2022

It's not really the start of sports season if an analyst doesn't produce projections, so I've whipped up some basic points projections for the cycling…

Jan 8, 2022 • 

jn

Impact of Aging on Performance

Like all physical competitions, cycling is impacted by aging.

Jan 7, 2022 • 

jn