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Impact of Heat at Rider-level
Leveraging betting market prices
Jun 29, 2024
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jn
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Impact of Heat at Rider-level
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Modelling the Betting Market
With Beta Regression
Jun 28, 2024
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jn
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Modelling the Betting Market
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March 2024
Milan Sanremo 2024
Milan Sanremo was won last Saturday in a twelve man sprint by Jasper Philipsen.
Mar 22, 2024
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jn
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Milan Sanremo 2024
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January 2024
2024 Rider Projections
Projecting PCS Points for the third year
Jan 11, 2024
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jn
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2024 Rider Projections
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January 2023
2023 Team Projections
Last year I produced my team-level projections for professional cycling for the first time.
Jan 12, 2023
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jn
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2023 Team Projections
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Evaluating Quick Step's Dominant Transfer Performance
Top-level professional cycling teams typically turnover around 20-25% of their roster (~7-8 of ~30 riders) year-over-year.
Jan 3, 2023
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jn
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Evaluating Quick Step's Dominant Transfer Performance
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June 2022
GC in 2022 Tour de France
There's a number of big stories on the general classification of this year's race.
Jun 29, 2022
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jn
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GC in 2022 Tour de France
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Sprinters in 2022 Tour de France
One of the biggest stories leading into the 2022 Tour de France was whether Quick Step will select young sprinting star Fabio Jakobsen or 34-time Tour…
Jun 27, 2022
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jn
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Sprinters in 2022 Tour de France
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February 2022
A Better Bunch Sprint Model
I introduced a very basic model for rating riders two months ago which simply took the natural logarithm of finishing rank in each race to make the stat…
Feb 23, 2022
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jn
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A Better Bunch Sprint Model
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January 2022
Too Many Leaders - Analyzing Team Depth
Pro cycling teams have to juggle a lot of goals: for the season, for a stage race, for an individual race.
Jan 17, 2022
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jn
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Too Many Leaders - Analyzing Team Depth
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Projected Team Points for 2022
It's not really the start of sports season if an analyst doesn't produce projections, so I've whipped up some basic points projections for the cycling…
Jan 8, 2022
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jn
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Projected Team Points for 2022
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Impact of Aging on Performance
Like all physical competitions, cycling is impacted by aging.
Jan 7, 2022
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jn
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Impact of Aging on Performance
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