Milan Sanremo 2024
Milan Sanremo was won last Saturday in a twelve man sprint by Jasper Philipsen. The big story was the efforts of two-time Tour de France winner Tadej Pogacar to win this race which has rarely been won by a climber of his caliber. Pogacar attacked twice on the final climb, but failed to conclusively distance the faster men and finished third.
The other main storyline was the speed the peloton completed the race in, 46.11 km/h, which is a new record time. That breaks the mark of 2023 (45.77 km/h) which broke 2022 (45.33 km/h). Now five of the eight fastest finishes in history have been set since 2019, with only the 2020 edition raced in August not making the top eight.
Below I’ve plotted kilometer by kilometer over the closing 55 km of the race how fast the leading available finisher raced relative to the other seven finishers since 2017. Eg, Jasper Stuyven in 2021 raced the kilometer between 11 and 10 kms to go (right before the Poggio) in 64.1 km/h which was 9% faster than the average speed of that segment. Blue marks indicate slower than average speeds on that segment and red marks indicate faster than average speeds on that segment.
The stark takeaway is the sheer speed of the closing kilometers of the race in the last four years. The three years starting in 2017 yielded average speeds of:
2017: 50.4 km/h
2018: 45.5 km/h
2019: 47.9 km/h
2020 had a different route due to Covid restrictions and also occurred in scorching weather in August so that can be ignored in the aggregate.
Starting in 2021, the speeds rocketed up with:
2021: 50.7 km/h
2022: 50.9 km/h
2023: 51.5 km/h
2024: 51.5 km/h
Overall, the 2021 to 2024 finales of the race were about 6% faster than the average speed from 2017 to 2019.
Looking more specifically at different segments of the race, the overall speed increase is consistent over each sector of the race, but larger in some areas. For example, the ~30 kilometers along the coast where the peloton hits three small climbs has been raced almost 7% faster in the recent four editions. The flats between the Cipressa and Poggio have also seen speed increases of 8% (though interestingly the 2024 race was bang on average as the pace slowed significantly). The major increase in speed between 2017-19 and 2021-24 has actually been driven disproportionately by faster pace on the small climbs and flat coastal road.
Segment 2017-19 2021-24 % increase
Coast road/three small climbs 49.5 52.9 +7%
Cipressa climb 32.7 34.7 +6%
Cipressa downhill 55.0 58.0 +5%
between climbs 50.8 54.9 +8%
Poggio climb 38.5 39.9 +4%
Poggio downhill 49.9 52.7 +6%
Final 2km 54.7 58.0 +6%The sector which has increased the least has been the Poggio - the 3.7 km 3.7% final climb - which has only sped-up by a bit less than 4% in recent years.
Looking specifically at 2024, the fastest two sectors were the Cipressa climb - paced aggressively enough to significantly reduce the peloton at about 8% faster than average - and the final 2 kms on the Via Roma (a special case as multiple attacks forced the pace very hard as the peloton chased first Mohoric, then Sobrero and Pidcock). The slowest sector in a relative sense was the stretch between the Cipressa and Poggio where the pace slowed significantly, attacks went off the front, and the peloton doubled in size. That was only 1% faster than average year.
Below is a clearer look at the final 10km of the race which features the Poggio climb, downhill, and final run in to the finish. These datapoints are consistent with the timed climbing segments by Mihai Simion on his Climbing Records site. Eg, Nibali’s 2018 win came with a climbing time of just 6:13 into a headwind, about 10% slower than the 2024 rider by Pogacar.
Perhaps more interesting is the relative changes in speed. The first part of the Poggio in 2024 was not paced hard as UAE Team Emirates struggled to get organized, but the pace was high enough afterwards to break climbing record.
